Westpac's chief economist says recent falls in mortgage rates will boost house prices but warns of rising rates and falling prices from 2020.
In Westpac's latest Home Truths newsletter Stephens wrote that there were clear signs that recent falls in mortgage interest rates had boosted the market.
"It is clear that the rate of house price inflation has lifted recently," he said.
"This acceleration is coming from Auckland and Canterbury, which have shifted from slightly falling to slightly rising house prices, and from Otago and Southland, where house prices are rising fast.
"Meanwhile, the rate of inflation in Wellington and few nearby regions has eased a little."
Stephens said rising sales volumes were a good pointer to the short term outlook for prices and the lift in sales reported by the REINZ in October was a good indicator that house price inflation was set to accelerate.
He picked that house prices could rise 1.5% in the March quarter, mainly driven by lower interest rates.
But he also warned that the lift in the market could be short lived.
"Mortgage interest rates will not keep falling forever," he said.
"Actually, wholesale fixed interest rates have risen quite sharply over the past week or two.
"That should at least arrest the decline in fixed mortgage rates, if not reverse it.
"This is why we think the current housing market upturn will be short-lived.
"We remain convinced that mortgage interest rates will eventually rise significantly.
"At that point, we expect the housing market to be severely impacted.
"But with the Reserve Bank looking to keep the OCR low for some time, this is more a story for the 2020s than the current decade.
"We are forecasting falling house prices in the early 2020s."
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Poll: Do you think NZ should ban social media for youth?
The Australian Prime Minister has expressed plans to ban social media use for children.
This would make it illegal for under 16-year-olds to have accounts on platforms including TikTok, Instagram, Facebook and X.
Social media platforms would be tasked with ensuring children have no access (under-age children and their parents wouldn’t be penalised for breaching the age limit)
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Do you think NZ should follow suit? Vote in our poll and share your thoughts below.
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84.6% Yes
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14% No
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1.4% Other - I'll share below
BLACKHAWK CORGI RACES SUNDAY NOV 17
Who is the fastest Corgi in NZ?
This will be decided on Sunday, November 17 at Belmont Domain, Lower Hutt with racing starting at 2pm.
Thirty Pembroke and Cardigan Corgis will take to the 60 metre track for racing like no other.
Competition comes from as far away as Auckland and Whanganui and if you want to stretch it a little - Scotland - with the very recent arrival of Skye and his owners from the other side of the world.
The youngest to compete is 7 month old, Atlas whilst Bonnie at 14 years is part of the seniors (nine and over) event.
Spectators very welcome to this sixth annual championship organised by the Wellington Welsh Corgi Club.
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