Westpac's chief economist says recent falls in mortgage rates will boost house prices but warns of rising rates and falling prices from 2020.
In Westpac's latest Home Truths newsletter Stephens wrote that there were clear signs that recent falls in mortgage interest rates had boosted the market.
"It is clear that the rate of house price inflation has lifted recently," he said.
"This acceleration is coming from Auckland and Canterbury, which have shifted from slightly falling to slightly rising house prices, and from Otago and Southland, where house prices are rising fast.
"Meanwhile, the rate of inflation in Wellington and few nearby regions has eased a little."
Stephens said rising sales volumes were a good pointer to the short term outlook for prices and the lift in sales reported by the REINZ in October was a good indicator that house price inflation was set to accelerate.
He picked that house prices could rise 1.5% in the March quarter, mainly driven by lower interest rates.
But he also warned that the lift in the market could be short lived.
"Mortgage interest rates will not keep falling forever," he said.
"Actually, wholesale fixed interest rates have risen quite sharply over the past week or two.
"That should at least arrest the decline in fixed mortgage rates, if not reverse it.
"This is why we think the current housing market upturn will be short-lived.
"We remain convinced that mortgage interest rates will eventually rise significantly.
"At that point, we expect the housing market to be severely impacted.
"But with the Reserve Bank looking to keep the OCR low for some time, this is more a story for the 2020s than the current decade.
"We are forecasting falling house prices in the early 2020s."
Poll: Should drivers retake the theory test every 10 years?
Drivers get where they need to go, but sometimes it seems that we are all abiding by different road rules (for example, the varying ways drivers indicate around a roundabout).
Do you think drivers should be required to take a quick driving theory test every 10 years?
Vote in the poll and share any road rules that you've seen bent! 😱
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49.7% Yes
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48.4% No
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1.9% Other - I'll share below
Tai Chi October - December 2024
Hi, I'm Andrew Hardwick, Tai Chi Instructor and member of NZ National Tai Chi Chuan Association Incorporated (NZNTCCA). The name of my wellness-focussed Tai Chi class is Not Strictly Tai Chi. The quirky name is a humorous twist on the name of shows like "Strictly Come Dancing", and from the fact that (a) I'm not strict and (b) If I see an exercise I think would provide a health benefit to my Tai Chi students, I will add it to my class offerings.
My Upper Hutt venue is Te Kupenga o Rongomai - Maidstone Sports Hub. Classes are in school term times only, and are open to all ages.
So far in 2024 we've had ages ranging from Mums attending while their kids are at school, through to retired people looking for healthy exercise.
No experience necessary. Experienced and beginners equally welcome
School Term 4 classes will be on the following dates
Wednesday evenings, from 7pm - 8pm
October 16th
October 23rd
October 30th
November 6th
November 13th
November 20th
November 27th
December 4th
December 11th
December 18th
Thursday mornings, from 10am - 11am
October 17th
October 24th
October 31st
November 7th
November 14th
November 21st
November 28th
December 5th
December 12th
December 19th
Enquiries welcome on 021 153 2508
Andrew Hardwick - Tai Chi Instructor
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