Census ‘anomalies’ leave council staff scratching their heads
By David Hill, Local Democracy Reporter
‘‘Anomalies’’ in Census data on North Canterbury's population growth is creating a headache for a local council.
The Hurunui District Council’s south ward, including Amberley, has experienced a building boom in recent years, but this is not reflected in the latest provisional Census data on population growth.
According to Census data released earlier this year, Hurunui’s south ward had a population of 5620 in March 2023, an increase of 410 people from the 2018 Census.
This suggests an increase of 1.53% a year over the last five years, much lower than the yearly average increase for the ward of 2.45% since 2001.
But council chief executive Hamish Dobbie said the council’s own data suggests a much larger population increase.
‘‘We would rate the period 2018 to 2023 as a high growth period. You’ve just got to look at the number of houses being built.
‘‘Maybe when they did the Census, people weren’t in their houses and did it somewhere else.
‘‘There is something that doesn’t add up, or maybe it is right and the population was over estimated in 2018.’’
A Stats NZ spokesperson said the current calculations are subject to change and net migration can be difficult to estimate.
Over the last five years, the council has issued 373 consents for new houses in the south ward, mostly for three or four bedroom houses.
Dobbie did not believe there were lots of empty houses in Amberley.
If Census data is unreliable, it can complicate council planning, he said.
But he acknowledged predicting population is ‘‘an inexact science’’.
‘‘It is when you don’t know there are anomalies that you can get things wrong.’’
When the council conducted a representation review ahead of next year’s local government election, it had to rely on 2018 Census data as the 2023 data was not available.
A rapidly rising population formed part of the reasoning behind a proposal to establish a community board for the south ward.
But when presenting to the Local Government Commission last week, the council presented the 2023 Census data while noting the number consents issued.
‘‘We do our own numbers for planning for things like water supply,’’ Dobbie said.
‘‘If we utilised growth numbers that come from the Census, we wouldn’t have water available when it is needed.’’
A Stats NZ spokesperson said the figures for Hurunui’s south ward compared the 2018 Census with population estimates and projections.
‘‘Estimated population change for an area comes from estimated natural increase (births minus deaths), plus estimated net migration.’’
Migration is hard to estimate because there is no single authoritative data source to measure migration into and out of an area, the spokesperson said.
‘‘Estimates for June 2023 are provisional and subject to revision,’’ the spokesperson said.
Building consents are useful, but not all consents result in completed houses, there is a lag between consent and occupancy, some are for second homes and some are to replace demolished buildings.
A second release of 2023 Census data is due on October 3, while population estimates will be revised next year.
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown said the Government is not considering allowing alternative data sources to be considered in representation reviews.
"Representation review data looks at the entire population, not just ratepayers or those eligible to vote, so care would be needed in considering whether alternative data sources could be used in the future.''
■ LDR is local body journalism co-funded by RNZ and NZ On Air.
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Older residents call for Amberley bus service
By David Hill, Local Democracy Reporter
A lack of public transport and access to healthcare were among the issues raised in recent a survey of older residents in the Hurunui district.
The Hurunui District Council surveyed residents aged over 60 during August and September, as it looks to develop an age-friendly community plan to support an ageing population.
There are currently no public bus services in Hurunui, which includes the town of Amberley, about 40km north of Christchurch.
Community development facilitator Vanessa Nelmes said public transport is a big issue for many elderly people, while accessing medical care when needed remains a concern.
While there are a number of community vehicle trusts operating in the district, respondents felt a regular bus service from Amberley to Rangiora and/or Christchurch is needed.
Hurunui mayor Marie Black has been among those advocating for a bus service, but for now Environment Canterbury says there are no plans to offer public transport in the district.
The distance to medical care in Christchurch and the lack of a dentist were also mentioned, Nelmes said.
The survey received 213 responses from residents aged from 60 to their 90s, with half coming from residents in the south ward, which includes Amberley.
Nelmes said the survey found a majority of the respondents felt confident using computers, internet and / or smart phones.
‘‘It kind of puts that myth to bed that old people don’t like using technology.
‘‘I think we really do need to change our mindset compared to what is really happening in our community.’’
Although about 50 respondents said they were not confident using technology, showing there was still a need for providing support.
The survey also asked if people would like to improve their skills with technology and it was ‘‘evenly split’’, Nelmes said.
A concerning trend in the survey was a number of respondents who said they felt socially isolated, especially those new to the community, she said.
‘‘We had half a dozen people who replied along the lines, ‘you have to put yourself out there, but it’s how to make the first step’.’’
The survey has been analysed by the age-friendly steering group, which plans to widen its membership to include different agencies such as district nursing and is seeking a rural voice, Nelmes said.
Council staff plan to do a stocktake of services available for senior citizens in the district, before beginning work on a draft age-friendly plan.
Environment Canterbury public transport strategy and planning manager Sonia Pollard said there are no plans to extend bus services into Amberley or the wider Hurunui district.
‘‘The focus for public transport improvements is on delivery of the core routes in Christchurch and the direct services between the main urban areas in Waimakariri and Selwyn districts and Christchurch City.
‘‘Service improvements are reliant on funding through local rates and the National Land Transport Programme.’’
She said routes outside large urban areas are unlikely to meet the funding criteria in the 2024/27 National Land Transport Programme.
But as part of the 2025/26 annual plan staff are considering how to best serve the rural community, including assessing new routes outside the Greater Christchurch boundary.
■ LDR is local body journalism co-funded by RNZ and NZ On Air.
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