Sinking coastlines mean parts of Christchurch will feel impact of sea-level rise earlier than expected
From reporter Tina Law:
Parts of Christchurch will feel the impacts of sea-level rise earlier than expected because the land is sinking, according to new data.
Large areas from Woodend to Lake Ellesmere, including Banks Peninsula, are subsiding up to three millimetres per year, which means an extra 30 centimetres of sea-level rise over the next 100 years.
The data has come from NZ SeaRise, a five-year research programme funded by the Government involving 30 local and international experts.
It has taken into account the natural rises and falls of the country’s coastline, as well as climate change and warming temperatures to project sea level rises.
Using a www.searise.nz... |new online tool|, New Zealanders will for the first time be able to see how much and how fast sea levels will rise along their own stretch of coast and in their neighbourhood.
Programme co-leader Professor Tim Naish, of Victoria University of Wellington, said 20 years ago it was thought sea-level rise was like pouring water into a bathtub – if you put more water in, it rises uniformly around the world, but Naish said it is actually much more complicated.
Sea levels are expected to rise at different rates across New Zealand and even at different levels across Canterbury’s coastline.
The largest increases in sea levels are expected to occur along the southeast of the North Island along the Wairarapa Coast.
Programme co-leader Dr Richard Levy, of GNS Science and Victoria University of Wellington, said subsidence rates along that coast were high, and sea levels could rise by well over 1.5 metres by 2100 if the least optimistic climate change scenario was followed.
Based on current international emissions reduction policies, global sea levels are expected to rise by about 60cm by 2100, but for large parts of New Zealand this could double to about 1.2m due to ongoing land subsidence, Naish said.
“We have less time to act than we thought.”
According to the data, Akaroa on Banks Peninsula would see 30cm of sea-level rise by 2040, instead of 2060. The coastline in the area is sinking by 3mm a year.
“Thirty centimetres of sea-level rise means the one in 50-year coastal storm flood will occur annually,” Naish said.
However, some areas at the top of Lyttelton Harbour have shown a rise in the land.
Land movement data was based on median numbers taken between 2003 and 2011, and does not include the impact of the Christchurch earthquakes.
The data showed New Brighton’s coastline was sinking at 0.8mm a year, but Naish said since the earthquakes it has actually been sinking at 8mm a year, twice as fast as the global sea-level rise.
“We don’t know how long this will go on for.”
Levy said he expected councils and planners to be the primary users of the new projection information, and that the finance and insurance sectors had already been asking for the data.
Naish said the new science would give time to put in place equitable and effective adaptation measures that would limit the impact of unavoidable sea-level rise.
The Christchurch City Council has already embarked on a long process to adapt the city and Banks Peninsula to climate change.
Changes to managing new developments are being made to the district plan and the council has agreed on guidelines for adapting existing areas.
Whakaraupō Lyttelton Harbour will be the first area in Christchurch to go through climate change planning, expected to start in the spring and take 18 months.
Simon Watts, observatory director at Brighton Observatory of Environment and Economics who built his home in Southshore, said it was always better to know about things rather than be ambushed, but said the devil was always in the detail.
He said there were areas in Christchurch that rose after the earthquakes and others that sunk.
“For some areas it could be good news and others it could be bad news.
“Yes, people should be concerned because if parts of New Zealand sink by 3mm a year, that is effectively doubling the rate of sea level rise for those places."
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Education changes: Area schools ‘copping it from all directions’
By David Hill, Local Democracy Reporter
A North Canterbury principal says area schools are ‘‘copping it from all directions’’ with Government changes to education.
Amuri Area School principal Matt Barlow has written to Education Minister Erica Stanford to ask whether the pace of change can be slowed down.
Area schools cover all year levels from new entrants to year 13, tend to be smaller and are based in rural areas, meaning they face pressures to implement curriculum changes across the board.
‘‘Schools like Rangiora High School don’t have to worry about year 1 to 3 literacy and numeracy, and primary schools don’t have to worry about changes to NCEA.
‘‘We are a bit of an afterthought. Area schools are like an airport and principals are like air traffic controllers, with planes coming from all directions.’’
While some rural school rolls are falling, Amuri Area School is managing a growing roll.
The roll has jumped from 335 to 380 students since the start of 2023, which includes its largest roll of year 7s (50) and year 13s (22).
Barlow said the school is working with the Ministry of Education to design a new building for science, technology and arts classes.
No budget or timeframe has been decided.
Amuri Area School is in Culverden, on the way to Hanmer Springs, and the relative isolation adds to the challenges.
The relief teacher pool is limited, meaning Barlow and his two deputy principals have had to step into the classroom several times this year.
Roger Hornblow became principal at Cheviot Area School in term four last year, having been a long serving primary school principal.
‘‘Area schools are very complex and I don’t think it is appreciated by everybody.
‘‘We are dealing with the NCEA changes and the year 0 to 8 changes. It is really complex.
‘‘But that is part and parcel of the beast and we need to make sure we do it in a way which give students the best outcomes.’’
It means professional development is constant, and Hornblow is pleased with how his staff are stepping up.
He would like to see ‘‘a unified education policy’’ which did not change every time there is a change of Government.
The New Zealand Education Institute Te Riu Roa and the New Zealand Principals' Federation also called on the Government last week to slow down the implementation of new structured math and English curriculum.
New NCEA literacy and numeracy online tests have also come under fire from secondary school principals around the country.
Education Minister Erica Stanford said extra support is being provided to area schools in North Canterbury, with curriculum advisors visiting schools, assisting with teacher only days and providing webinars.
The schools also have the support of the ministry's area school leadership advisor Stephen Beck, who is taking a year out from his role as principal at Hurunui College.
"Support will be ongoing as the local team looks to ensure our rural area schools have the assistance they require to implement and embed these changes."
But she said introducing structured literacy and numeracy will take time, especially for schools teaching it for the first time.
"Embedding a curriculum refresh, running professional development and responding to our sector feedback are things we will work on together over the coming years."
■ LDR is local body journalism co-funded by RNZ and NZ On Air.
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