Westpac's chief economist says recent falls in mortgage rates will boost house prices but warns of rising rates and falling prices from 2020.
In Westpac's latest Home Truths newsletter Stephens wrote that there were clear signs that recent falls in mortgage interest rates had boosted the market.
"It is clear that the rate of house price inflation has lifted recently," he said.
"This acceleration is coming from Auckland and Canterbury, which have shifted from slightly falling to slightly rising house prices, and from Otago and Southland, where house prices are rising fast.
"Meanwhile, the rate of inflation in Wellington and few nearby regions has eased a little."
Stephens said rising sales volumes were a good pointer to the short term outlook for prices and the lift in sales reported by the REINZ in October was a good indicator that house price inflation was set to accelerate.
He picked that house prices could rise 1.5% in the March quarter, mainly driven by lower interest rates.
But he also warned that the lift in the market could be short lived.
"Mortgage interest rates will not keep falling forever," he said.
"Actually, wholesale fixed interest rates have risen quite sharply over the past week or two.
"That should at least arrest the decline in fixed mortgage rates, if not reverse it.
"This is why we think the current housing market upturn will be short-lived.
"We remain convinced that mortgage interest rates will eventually rise significantly.
"At that point, we expect the housing market to be severely impacted.
"But with the Reserve Bank looking to keep the OCR low for some time, this is more a story for the 2020s than the current decade.
"We are forecasting falling house prices in the early 2020s."
Poll: Do you think banning gang patches is reasonable?
With the government cracking down on gangs, it is now illegal for gang members to display their insignia in public places whether through clothing or their property.
This means arrests can be made if these patches are worn in places like restaurants, shops, on public transport or ferries, and on airplanes. Arrests were made recently at a funeral.
Do you think this ban is reasonable?
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76.3% Yes
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22.3% No
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1.4% Other - I'll share below
What's your favourite recipe for courgettes?
Kia ora neighbours. If you've got a family recipe for courgettes, we'd love to see it and maybe publish it in our magazine. Send your recipe to mailbox@nzgardener.co.nz, and if we use it in the mag, you will receive a free copy of our January 2025 issue.
Poll: Should all neighbours have to contribute to improvements?
An Auckland court has ruled a woman doesn’t have to contribute towards the cost of fixing a driveway she shares with 10 neighbours.
When thinking about fences, driveways or tree felling, for example, do you think all neighbours should have to pay if the improvements directly benefit them?
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82.1% Yes
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15.2% No
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2.7% Other - I'll share below
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